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A change to milder weather will come at the weekend, with rain, preceded by some snow; the last week of January looks much milder with rain at times. The thaw, when it comes could be rapid and with the ground already saturated from last year's excessive rainfall, flooding is likely to be a concern. Sign in or register to comment.
I really struggle to find any credibility in weather computer models, when the various weather forecasts are so patently wrong After the first dump of snow Red alert for South Wales, it was the South East that was supposed to get the next lot of snow, and the NorthWest was apparently going to be clear. We've had more snow in Liverpool today than we did on Friday. I'm not complaining about that though - I quite like the snow. Is it time we went back to the vague stick-on sun, clouds and snowflakes for weather reporting, rather than simulated 3-D weather previews.
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Perhaps, to the viewer, that would represent a truer picture of the unpredicatability of forecasting. Despite that, I'll still watch the forecasts, just so I can tut about how off-the-mark they are. Complain about this comment Comment number 1. I'm struggling to accept this "big freeze" statement. The last two winters have been MUCH colder. Have we forgotten the temperatures of two years ago? By comparison surely this winter has been MUCH milder so far? Complain about this comment Comment number 2.
Complain about this comment Comment number 3. Children just aren't going to know what snow is! More seriously, these situations always cling on a few days longer than the models expect due to how deep the cold penetrates into the ground and buildings. Complain about this comment Comment number 4. Yes quite a different prospect offered by the MO-BBC compared to both Weatheraction and Exacta Weather and it will be very interesting to see what happens at the weekend.
Complain about this comment Comment number 5. The wonderful BBC extended forecast is showing a high temp. So on that basis, there still seems to be a lot of uncertainty. It's possible that the high might be lower than the low! Complain about this comment Comment number 6.
Complain about this comment Comment number 7. I see that the Norwegian MO are, for the West-Central Grsmpians, going for low double figure frosts on Thursday -Friday this week, followed by much milder conditions coming in on Saturday and continue to warm up into the middle of the following week. Complain about this comment Comment number 8. Piers Corbyn's accuracy for January is very much open to question. I have a copy of his forecast. He forecast very well the heavy snow in the last few days, in a period he quotes Jan. No arguments with that one. But he got it badly wrong during first 2 weeks of January, forecasting cold and wintry showers when in fact temperatures were for a time in double figures totally missing the mild spell.
And he also is forecasting the rest of January into early Feb will stay cold or very cold. Paul's blog is suggesting a thaw from the weekend which could be wrong because it hasn't happened yet. It seems to me that weather action has forecast cold and snow risk for vitually the whole of January, so its very easy for him to claim success if snow does arrive in one period, conveniently forgetting the other bits. Complain about this comment Comment number 9.
We are now 3 days into this forecast so judge for yourself if it was correct. Doesn't seem to mention the snow we had in the Southwest. Met Office UK Outlook for Saturday 19 Jan to Monday 28 Jan "Some uncertainty in the details of the forecast, however through the weekend there should be a good deal of dry and bright weather, but with the risk of snow showers in the east and southeast. More unsettled in the west with spells of rain and snow, which may spread further east on Sunday.
Cold or very cold with widespread frost, and the risk of ice. Probably turning more unsettled thereafter, with spells of rain, heavy at times in the west and southwest, and some hill snow, which could fall to lower levels at times in the north and east. Best of drier weather in eastern areas.
Frost overnight, and most areas staying cold or rather cold, although perhaps occasionally near normal in the west and southwest. Complain about this comment Comment number Gadgetfiend - At least Mr Corbyn has had some success unlike some other websites. Forcasting as far ahead as he does is always going to have varying degrees of success but surely it is better to over rather than under prepare for cold, possibly disruptive weather! It is winter afterall.
As for this weekend onwards, Paul's blog got it wrong in december's "beast from the east" post so it is also possible that the thaw may not materialise either. Personally I think these UK summary forecasts are too vague in their locations and timing. It isn't entirely clear which parts of the country are being referred to or exactly when they apply either. I don't see how such a forecast can be evaluated. We certainly didn't have any "dry and bright weather" in the North East. The simple average of the monthly figures work out at 0. The CRU versions of the data files don't seem to have been upated yet.
I think mainly due to cold temperatures over Russia. I haven't had a chance to check how this ranks in historical terms, but that seems like a very big fall. The question which arises in my mind, is where has the heat gone? It hasn't gone into the ocean surface, and I don't think it could have gone into the deeper oceans. I know that the Sudden Stratospheric Warming has recently been blamed for colder temperatures in the U. I wonder how SSW relates to global atmospheric temperatures at a lower level, and how much the stratosphere would have to warm in order to account for a 0.
Or has the missing heat merely moved to somewhere that we are not currently measuring it? Im really enjoying this mediterranean climate with hotter drier summers and milder winters with snow a thing of the past. Land surface datasets do tend to jump around a lot, but this is a little bit unexpected. I seem to recall that the change was needed to include more stations in Russia and Canada?
Also SSWs yet still very much an enigma to me, keeping a watching brief. So pop goes the inclusion of new Russlie thermos as a reason. Message 2 December recorded average temperatures for the UK overall. The January temperature will probably be around 1 Celsius below normal.http://pushkinmoslib.ru/components/map10.php
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Thanks QV for doing all the maths From your post 13 Is the figure for 0. Whichever figure we take it looks like this years winners are Paul Briscoe, Gadgetfriend and myself. Looks like the planet responded more quickly than usual or expected to changes in ENSO in - the month lag didn't seem to apply.
Perhaps it was because of the timing of the shifts? Similarly, the shift back to negative conditions has occurred as NH winter set in. Latest ENSO forecasts are still on the cool side of neutral for the first half of and unless I'm mistaken, these forecasts are gradually shifting towards cooler conditions.
Last time I looked, there was still a very large pool of subsurface cool water in the central and eastern pacific according to BOM. Not sure how all this translates into Hadcrut 4, but the hollybush tells me 0. Ukpahonta 23, I thought the UK Met. I have re-read the article many times and I am still not certain of the basis of their forecast. Based on their Best Estimate of 0. This one of the major reasons why the MO leaves itself open for criticism, nothing stays still long enough for interested parties to develop a long term understanding. There is always a slight difference between the two figures due to MO methodology.
However, we should probably use the MO figure when confirmed. I have e-mailed the MO to ask if the figure is "final". They do say that there are no plans to extend it to 10 years, so I guess it will be re-named the "semi-decadal" forecast or possibly the "lustrumnal" forecast, if that is actually a real word. Further clarification is required. Both of which are expected to be revised?
The average figure for quoted in the forecast is 0. The fall in December seems to have caught the MO out because they still didn't get right on December 20th.
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If starts with a figure of 0. Remember that figure is an average, so if the year starts low, it has to be correspondingly high at the end of the year. I am looking forward to an explanation for the December fall from the MO. I imagine there is some serious head-scratching going on in the forecasting department at UEA. Am I looking in the wrong place? I was under the impression that the MO had said 0. Data-driven learning for foreign languages and CLIL classes. Researching data-driven learning: Past, present, future. Data-driven learning: Data from research, data for learning.
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